Friday, May 07, 2010

All-nighter...


Cranmer will be up all night, pondering, twittering, commenting hither and thither, and drinking copious amounts of coffee.

If any nocturnal communicants wish to voice a thought, this thread is for you.

His Grace does not believe the exit polls, and is still expecting to see a modest Conservative majority.

39 Comments:

Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Agreed. A majority is still very much on the cards; I'm predicting around 5-10 seats (with notable gains in the Midlands).

I'm still quite annoyed that certain councils have been allowed to postpone their count until tomorrow morning, though. That it saves money is not reason enough to endanger the credibility of results in some key marginals.

7 May 2010 at 00:26  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Johnstone,

Delighted to be in your company (Jack Daniel's or coffee?). Midlands seats will be riveting, though (as His Grace just tweeted) Gisela Stuart will be a loss to Parliament and Labour euroscepticism.

7 May 2010 at 00:28  
Anonymous Oswin said...

Cannot contain my delight at the failure of the Lib-Dem vote (so far!)

7 May 2010 at 00:31  
Blogger Adrian said...

I'm following @ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/default.stm and I'll check back here every now and again...

7 May 2010 at 00:33  
Blogger Jess The Dog said...

Agreed, small Tory majority. Exit poll usually ok for winner, less accurate for runners up. Swings so far indicate Tory majority. Scenes of voters turned away are disgusting. If Brown clings to power by any means after a defeat, he would have no legitimacy and should be overthrown...others have fought in years past for our democracy.

7 May 2010 at 00:36  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Your Grace,

And I yours. I'm on the beer at the moment, although the Jack Daniel's will unquestionably make its appearance towards the early hours. I'll doubtless be up all night too, and will be continually tuned in to your Twitter/blog (far more interesting than the TV coverage at the moment).

You're right in saying that Stuart will be a loss, but if such seats must fall to pave the way for the elusive Conservative majority that once seemed so assured, then I think it can be justified.

A question, though. Since it is likely to monopolise the media at some point in the next few weeks, how does Your Grace see the Labour leadership playing out? My instinct says Harman, and that could play wonderfully into Tory hands...

7 May 2010 at 00:41  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Johnstone,

Beer?

His Grace has finished the Shiraz and is on coffee.

On the election after this one, it will be won either by Miliband or (if Labour have any sense) Alan Johnson:

http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-labour-could-easily-win-next.html

People cannot stand Harman.

7 May 2010 at 00:51  
Blogger Jess The Dog said...

I'm sipping tea now, bottle of cava finished between myself and mrs, bottle of merlot waiting...

7 May 2010 at 01:06  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Your Grace,

Alas, it is a lamentable but undeniable truth that as a student, choice of tipple is heavily determined by price. Shiraz is an opulence that will have to wait until I have returned home and earned a bit of money...

I agree that Johnson would be by far the most rational choice. In fact, were he to take over the Labour Party, it could spell a minor resurgence to go a long way to ameliorating the hit that the party will undoubtedly take tonight.

But whomever takes over as Party Leader must be prepared for the distinct possibility of defeat in 2014 too. Presuming, as I do, that both Miliband and Johnson have ambitions above merely leading the party to electoral disaster, they may well skirt around putting themselves forward in any leadership race. If it is the case that they seek to wear the crown, then I foresee a situation in which they again - as has been the case on multiple occasions in the past twelve months - refuse to wield the dagger. Hague is a case in point of a front bench talent putting himself forward too early; I just wonder whether Miliband and Johnson may heed this historical warning...

But then again, I may well be a million miles off.

7 May 2010 at 01:19  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

P.S. Robinson losing his seat has left me dumbstruck...

7 May 2010 at 01:21  
Anonymous no nonny said...

The link posted above didn't work for me - I'm using this one:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/

7 May 2010 at 01:25  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Johnstone,

His Grace forgot you were in student penury.

A bottle of Shiraz is somewhat cheaper than JD.

7 May 2010 at 01:28  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Your Grace,

True, it is. Though a bottle of Shiraz is only enough for one night of drinking. A bottle of JD is ample for at least. two ;0)

Nevertheless, you have twisted my arm. A majority (or anything so close as to be a de facto majority) and I shall celebrate with a bottle. Let us just hope that this ~8% swing holds out nationally; if it does, a modest majority is by no means an ambitious prediction.

7 May 2010 at 01:35  
Anonymous no nonny said...

I'm even more struck that Gordo had retained his and increased his majority!! How can those people be so dumb!! Now he's prating on about 'true friendship.'

7 May 2010 at 01:36  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr No Nonny,

They're Scottish.

7 May 2010 at 01:39  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

YG,

I picked up on Marr's comment too. Having recently rewatched the whole 1974 election night on BBC Parliament (at best tedious, at worst nauseating), I am noticing vast similarities.

Let's just hope that the all-important variable - the result - is different.

7 May 2010 at 02:03  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Johnstone,

You watched the 1974 election? You must be bored.

His Grace is sure the result will be different.

Perhaps Marr is a lot younger than he looks... 36?

7 May 2010 at 02:07  
Blogger The Lakelander said...

Your Grace,

As a university student in 1979, I remember staying up all the night to see Margaret Thatcher's victory.

A friend of mine walked back with me to our hall of residence and said "isn't it nice to wake up to a free country?"

I don't think we're quite there yet but - for the first time in a very long time - the air somehow smells the same after all these years.

7 May 2010 at 02:15  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Your Grace,

Terribly so. It is remarkable how far a student will go to avoid having to prepare an extended essay on pensions policy. I didn't realise how far until I found myself in that very position.

But as for Marr, if he's a day under 48 then I'm a Lib Dem (I feel dirty just saying it).

Incidentally, we've just gained Aberconwy in Wales. I think this part of the UK could prove to be fairly important to this election; the YouGov poll which was published three or four days ago seemed to indicate a fairly substantial swing in that direction. Could Wales be shedding its post-Thatcher contemptuousness? Perhaps a tad optimistic...

7 May 2010 at 02:16  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Lakelander,

His Grace's ashes are breathing the same air. Cleggmania appears to have disappeared.

Mr Johnstone,

Pensions policy? An extended essay on pensions policy? Labour's? The EU's? How on earth do you write anything more than 500 words on that?!!

7 May 2010 at 02:20  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

Your Grace,

Tell me about it. A most soul-destroying exercise. It was an initial exploration of the Beveridge pension scheme followed by a comparative assessment of the Thatcherite and Blairite approaches (no mention of the EU curiously). If you've read that and resisted the temptation to yawn, you're a better man than I.

Also, Lembit Opik? Really?! When did Wales start voting like the Home Counties? Truly remarkable stuff.

7 May 2010 at 02:26  
Anonymous no nonny said...

Oh well - they've held red red Barnsley; that never changes. Sad.

7 May 2010 at 02:28  
Anonymous Maria said...

Your Grace,

As an eighteen-year-old in 1983, I stayed up all night to watch Margaret Thatcher's absolute landslide election victory. With the "Falkland's Factor" being strong, and Ronald Reagan having become US President in November 1980, I know I shouldn't have been surprised. But I was very disappointed.

Of course, those were the days of "Old Labour",

I wouldn't give the "New" lot house room!

Oh to be in 1983! Jimmy The Hoover, breakdancing and Roland Rat!

Yes, and even Mrs T winning her second term...

7 May 2010 at 02:33  
Anonymous no nonny said...

Good gain for Harrogate and Knaresborough, though!

7 May 2010 at 02:48  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

This talk of a Lib-Lab coalition seems terribly precocious. Are they not watching the same election as the rest of us?

A government composed of those two parties would bestow unto us a future of perpetual left-of-centre coalition via electoral reform. It's time for the Conservatives to really start storming their target seats.

7 May 2010 at 03:26  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

The Constitution is the Constitution. Gordon Brown is Prime Minister until he resigns. Until then, it is his prerogative to attempt to form a government. It may not be fair, but life rarely is.

7 May 2010 at 03:34  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

We can only hope that his efforts fall on fallow ground. The consensus on the BBC seems to be that the Conservatives aren't on track for a majority, but I'm holding out hope until the very end...

7 May 2010 at 03:39  
Anonymous Lumberjack said...

Your Grace,

I believe in forgiveness and redemption, but I can't believe that Cameron is anything other than a political chameleon, nor can I accept that the Conservatives have the will to transform the political structure of the UK in accordance with the tried-and-true principles of good governance, viz. sovereignty, liberty, accountability, and freedom.

Aptly it was that this band of professional politicians were dubbed "blulabour."

Humbly yours,
Lumberjack

7 May 2010 at 04:23  
Blogger Just Wonderful said...

Evan Harris gone. Result.

7 May 2010 at 04:25  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

The result in Oxford West and Abingdon is astounding. Parliament has lost its arch secularist. There is a God.

7 May 2010 at 04:31  
Anonymous Zach Johnstone said...

And now Jacqui Smith. Suddenly I feel buoyed by optimism again.

7 May 2010 at 04:38  
Anonymous no nonny said...

Jacqui Smith's out!! Love the expression on her face :) Nearly 6,000 majority for Cons. Pity about Balls, though.

7 May 2010 at 04:52  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Zzzzzz....

7 May 2010 at 05:49  
Anonymous Tony B said...

"His Grace does not believe the exit polls, and is still expecting to see a modest Conservative majority."

Had you fallen asleep and started dreaming at that point?

7 May 2010 at 10:05  
Blogger Archbishop Cranmer said...

Mr Tony B,

No, it was very early - just after midnight. Wide awake.

7 May 2010 at 10:23  
Anonymous jaz said...

"His Grace does not believe the exit polls, and is still expecting to see a modest Conservative majority."

Proving, once again, exactly what you would expect from a person who talks about themselves in the 3rd person.

7 May 2010 at 12:42  
Anonymous Oswin said...

jaz - whereas you, unlike any other pundit in existence, knew otherwise? I sat through almost the entire proceedings and at no stage was it possible to determine the outcome until the last flurry of results. I have never known the like of such results. Ask Paxman, Dimbleby, Robinson et al, they were all of them flummoxed.

7 May 2010 at 18:15  
Anonymous jaz said...

Oswin
No, not at all - would that I had such powers, wisdom and insight.

But I have seen enough elections to know that the wisest thing to do is to keep your mouth shut and your mind open - rather than, as was demonstrated here, the other way round.

I forget who it was who said better to keep your mouth shut and have people think you a fool, than open it and prove them right.

7 May 2010 at 18:21  
Anonymous Oswin said...

jaz...ok, I take your point; but it would make for a paucity of comment on the 'blogging' front.

7 May 2010 at 19:44  

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